Thiruvananthapuram: Global supply of natural rubber is unlikely to rise beyond 6% this year, according to an assessment made by Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC).
In its recent assessment, the Malaysia-based organisation said the figure of 6%, too, looks optimistic as the forecasts were made in the first week of March, assuming favourable weather and high level of prices.
“Severe drought in major producing countries has not been counted in the forecasts,” ANRPC secretary general Djoko Said Damardjati said.
The report pointed out that in Indonesia, rubber trees spread across 55,000 ha were cut in 2009 and few more would be cut this year for replanting under a government programme. As the planting rate was very low in 2003 and 2004, trees newly attaining yielding age would be very limited this year.
“So a 6.7% output rise anticipated for 2010 in Indonesia seems to be an optimistic one,” the report said, adding that in Malaysia as well, a 16.8% rise in production is highly optimistic as the tapped area has been consistently declining since the last six years.
Thailand’s production grew 2.4% in 2009 to 3,164,000 tonne, according to the official data.
After this revision, ANRPC’s estimate of total natural rubber production in 2009 has been calculated at around 8,976,000 tonne or 1.9% below the 2008 output.
ANRPC members account for 94% of the world rubber production.
At the same time, preliminary estimates show a robust demand in rubber globally. Import of natural rubber by China alone surged by 68%, the report added.
(financialexpress.com)
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